Mayoral Party Affiliation and Property Crime Rates in America's Most Populated Cities

Abstract

This paper examines the role played by the party affiliation of a mayor and property crime rates in America’s 100 largest cities in 2019.  The authors analyze the validity of claims made by former President Trump that Democratic cities have higher rates of property crime than Republican cities.  Property crime rates (in general) and burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft rates (in particular) are compared in cities with a Democratic mayor to those with a Republican mayor.  When all 100 largest cities are grouped together, there are significantly higher property crime rates in cities with Democratic mayors.  But, when cities are arranged by size (top 20, 21 – 50, and 51 – 100), there is generally no evidence of a connection between mayoral political party and property crime rates in cities run by Democrats compared to cities run by Republicans.