Black Sea Grain Initiative:
a Game-Theoretic Analysis
Keywords:
Game-Theoretic Analysis, Black Sea Grain InitiativeAbstract
In July 2023, the Black Sea Grain Deal expired just a year after its inception. It has become a very popular topic due to its significant implications for grain and staple food prices. There has been an abundance of empirical analysis to understand the situation, but the recent developments in the Black Sea Grain Deal have not been examined using a game-theoretic approach. This paper provides a game-theoretic viewpoint of the Black Sea Grain Deal with the focus on the breakdown. Using principles of game theory, I develop an infinitely repeated game with a defined set of players, actions, and preferences expressed through payoffs. By analyzing the game for sub-game perfect Nash equilibria, there is a clearer understanding of the breakdown of the Black Sea Grain Deal and its future implications. I finish by discussing possible extensions and variations of the model along with what conditions need to be met for a game-theoretic approach to be viable in general international relations settings.
References or Bibliography
[Bon23] Courtney Bonnell. Russia halts landmark deal that allowed ukraine
to export grain at time of growing hunger. AP News, 2023.
[Bra00] Steven J. Brams. Game theory: Pitfalls and opportunities in applying
it into international relations. International Studies Perspective, 2000.
[Cor01] Hector Correa. Game theory as an instrument for the analysis of
international relations. Ritsumeikan Annual Review of International
Studies, 2001.
[GT20] Oliver Gossner and Tristian Tomala. Repeated games with complete
information. Complex Social and Behavioral Systems: Game Theory
and Agent-Based Models, 2020.
[HS23] Nigel Hunt and Jonathan Saul. Black sea grain deal: What’s next
now that russia has pulled out?, 2023.
[Jer88] Robert Jervis. Realism, game theory, and cooperation. World Politics,
[Kan08] Michihiro Kandori. Repeated games. The New Palgrave Dictionary
of Economics, 2nd Edition, Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.
[Nic23] Michelle Nichols. Russia could be ready for black sea grain deal talks,
but no evidence yet, us says. Reuters, 2023.
[OEC22] OECD. The impacts and policy implications of russia’s aggression
against ukraine on agricultural markets. OECD, 2022.
[Pea91] David G. Peaerce. Repeated games: Cooperation and rationality.
Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, 1991.
[Ped23] Raul (Pete) Pedrozo. The black sea grain initiative: Russia’s strategic
blunder or diplomatic coup? International Law Studies, 2023.
[Rub94] Martin J. Osborne Ariel Rubinstein. A course in game theory. MIT
Press, 1994.
[Sla04] Branislav L. Slantchev. Game theory: repeated games. Department
of Political Science, University of California-San Diego, 2004.
[UNC22] UNCTAD. The black sea grain initiative: What it is, and why it’s
important for the world, 2022.
[Zag14] Frank Zagare. A game-theoretic history of the cuban missile crisis.
Economies, 2014.
Downloads
Posted
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Paari Dhanasekaran
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
The copyright holder for this article has granted JSR.org a license to display the article in perpetuity.
