Does the Scouting Combine Influence a Player's Standing in the NFL Draft?

Abstract

The annual scouting combine gives National Football League (NFL) teams an opportunity to assess over four days the skills of that year’s most promising college football players.  The authors merge two data sets on over one thousand draft eligible football players spanning the ten-year period between 2014 and 2023 on their ultimate draft pick numbers and selected combine test results.  Combine test results are converted to z-scores, that is, each participant’s number of standard deviations above or below the average performance in that year’s particular combine test.  Wide receivers’ standing in the NFL’s draft correlates well with combine test results in the 40-yard dash.  However, the authors find little-to-no relationship between combine test results and draft pick status over the last five years (let alone the last ten) for defensive backs, running backs, and defensive linemen who participated in, respectively, the vertical leap, broad jump, and bench press repetitions.