Can we predict the future?: Modelling SARS-CoV-2 epidemic to endemic transition

Abstract

COVID-19, an infectious disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, is the viral agent responsible for the ongoing pandemic. Various vaccines have been developed for different strains of the virus. This has led to reduction in the number of infections and deaths throughout the world, but the pandemic seems to be far from over due to constant mutations in the structure of the virus and other factors like immunity loss rate and re-infections. However, there is guidance to how we should proceed from a public health standpoint, due to the similar cases of influenza and the Hepatitises. These pathogens started out as epidemics or pandemics, then morphed into an endemic over the course of decades. Therefore, by combining our knowledge of these past epidemic to endemic transitions, we have made similar predictions about the transition of the COVID-19 pandemic into endemicity. A simple epidemiological model called the SIR model has been utilized to predict the course of the pandemic by computation, considering 2 cases – one without vaccination intervention and the other with vaccination intervention. The results indicate that COVID-19 is likely already an endemic, but to maintain a stable state and to mitigate the death toll, there is a serious need for continuous vaccination and regular changes in vaccinations as the virus mutates.